Betting the House

Galatasaray's almighty gamble on the transcendent Victor Osimhen came laden with risk, which the Turkish champions have done superbly to mitigate so far.

Now concerning Victor Osimhen, friends and neighbours, you have no need to have anything written to you. What may be known about him, namely, his untempered hunger and ceaseless menace to opposing defences, are plain and have been clearly perceived.

His latest showcase of majesty put Ajax to the sword inside the Amsterdam Arena, and while two of his three-goal largesse came from the penalty spot, his impact even outside of his goals was unmistakable. It took until the second period for the dam to break, but even while isolated and outnumbered in the first, Osimhen served multiple reminders of his genius; in one instance juggling the ball amidst the crowded hosts’ defence like an adult holding a toy just out of reach of squealing toddlers, before ramming a shot in the direction of quadragenarian Remko Pasveer. High line, mid block, parked bus; none of it seems to matter. At this point, his signature mask might as well come with a biohazard symbol.

That hat-trick took him clear of the likes of Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe in the Champions League scoring stakes. If that was not enough of a marker for his elite status, consider the fact that every goal now seems to be some sort of milestone. Off the back of last night, no Nigerian has scored more goals in European competition, and he is only the second from his nation to net three in a single match in this particular competition. See ya later, Obafemi Martins; fancy meeting you here, Yakubu Aiyegbeni. Did someone say the best Nigerian striker ever?

As stated above (and contrary to what the preceding two paragraphs may have led you to believe), this missive is not about Osimhen at all. It is, instead, about Galatasaray. Making the commitment to meet both Napoli’s asking price and the Nigeria international’s wage demands set tongues wagging both in Turkiye and abroad, the logical question being what exactly it was that would qualify as a suitable ROI. Their dominance at home was well established (Osimhen’s goals powered them in 2024/25, but they had won the year before without him), and so it made no sense to pay that much in pursuit of what was already theirs. The only possible new frontier was the Champions League, a competition they had not a prayer of winning or even, going by the records of Turkish sides in recent years, making a significant run in.

Then again, perhaps the worst reason to not try to do something is the fact that it cannot be done. That certainly appears to be the thinking amongst the Galatasaray brass, pragmatism be damned. They may not be able to win the Champions League, but they will certainly not go quietly into the night. Nine points from four matches – same as holders Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid, and more than Barcelona – has somewhat vindicated that mindset, and if there was any doubt as to the centrality of Osimhen to that cause, one has only to recall their opener: a 4-1 thrashing by Eintracht Frankfurt for which the 26-year-old was conspicuously absent.

That unavailability was a demonstration of the single biggest obstacle to their ambitious designs. Osimhen is crocked more often than most, an inescapable consequence of his signature all-action style, making the club’s wager an inherently perilous one.

The sample size is still modest at this time, but the evidence does suggest Galatasaray realise this too and have taken measures to ensure their prize asset is fit and available where he affords them the greatest upside. While he was sufficiently recovered from his knock with the Super Eagles for the late September engagement away at Alanyaspor, manager Okan Buruk gave him only five minutes in a hard-fought win and was rewarded with a match-winning performance four days later against Liverpool in the Champions League. Similarly, ahead of the trip to Bodo/Gllimt, Osimhen was given only a 16-minute run-out against Istanbul Basaksehir, and he responded with a brace in Norway.

At the weekend, he played the full 90, but against the threat of second-place Trabzonspor, it was somewhat understandable, but even allowing for that interruption to the pattern, the Turkish champions have been clever in their use of their talisman, forgoing more comfortable scorelines at home in favour of maximum thrust in Europe.

There is no telling how far this approach will get them, especially with Atletico and Manchester City still to come, but with Osimhen fit and fresh, Galatasaray are giving themselves every chance.